中文摘要：

根据塔里木盆地水循环的特点,从系统的观点出发定义塔里木盆地水资源可持续利用的定量化概念,建立了水文循环的系统动力学模型。从模型可以看出,径流量主要由降水量、冰雪贮水量决定,而降水量又由内、外循环系数及系统贮水量决定。仿真模拟结果显示：在温度升高的背景下,系统贮水量减少,水资源系统恶化;水资源系统对内、外循环转化率变化非常敏感。因塔里木盆地降水转化率与全国相比很低,具有改善的潜力,考虑盆地独特地形条件及气候系统特征,从概念上分析人工影响塔里木盆地水文循环的可能及途径。

英文摘要：

From the view of systemic theory,based on the water cycle character,the paper puts forward the quantitative concept of water sustainable utilization in Tarim basin,and builds up the System Dynamic（SD） model of water cycle in Tarim basin.From the model the conclusion can be drawn that water resource is decided by the quantity of precipitation and solid water from the mountains and the precipitation is decided by the recycle coefficient and water storage of the system.The computer simulating results show that the water storage decreased and water system degraded with the temperature rising,and the water system is sensitive to the recycle coefficient and that value is very small compares to the mean value of the whole country.Consider the unique topography and characters of climate system of the basin,the ways to impact the water cycle artificially in Tarim basin are proposed.