本文利用2005年至2010年共192,012份中国分析师发布的评级意见,将对分析师研究活动的需求因素与证券分析研究活动的供给因素相结合,采用自然历组合法研究后发现:平均来看,我国分析师的研究报告具有显著的投资价值;分析师利好性意见的投资价值持续时间较短,市场反应迅速;分析师利空性意见的投资价值持续时间较长,这可能是由于分析师评级具有乐观性以及禁止卖空所导致的。明星分析师的利好性投资意见比非明星分析师的相应意见具有更高投资价值;二者利空性意见的投资价值并无显著差别,表明明星分析师确实具有一技之长。
Using a sample of Chinese analysts' recommendations from 2005 to 2010, we find the following results: first, on average, the recommendations of Chinese security analysts have investment value; second, buy recommendations from star analysts have more investment value than those of non-star analysts. These results suggest that analysts do have some expertise. This research makes several contributions to the field: first, it can assist the more efficient allocation of economic resources; second, it investigates Chinese analysts' expertise; third, it can help investors to select valuable recommendations to form portfolios; and fourth, it can help brokerage houses to evaluate the output of research departments.