中央战略引领下由众多地方政府推动的产业结构调整是中国经济增长的重要动力所在。识别其演变特征及动力机制。关系到产业结构转型升级和经济可持续增长。本文构建产业高度化指数来衡量中国区域的产业结构调整,并将其分解为技术效应和结构效应。通过构建带共同因子的广义动态空间面板模型,验证了中国产业结构调整过程中的区际横向竞争和地方对中央政策跟进的两大特征。研究发现,中国的产业结构愈发高度化,其演变更多地倚重于技术效应。中国区域产业结构调整具有显著的省际竞争特征;地方产业结构调整也积极地跟进中央的产业结构政策,且主要表现为结构效应方面的跟进。本文还发现,中央对下级地方官员的政治激励是地方产业结构调整的区域互动的重要驱动力。由于政治激励具有时间周期性,地方官员出于时间约束与政绩追求,重点偏向于影响产业结构本身的调整,而并未显著改变产业的技术效率升级。
Industrial structure change, led by the Central Committee's strategy and carried out by various local governments, is an important engine of economic growth in China. Identifying its characteristics of evolution and dynamic mechanism concerns both success of transformation and upgrading in industrial structure and sustainable economic growth. The paper constructs an industry supererogation index to measure China's regional industrial structure change, decomposes it to technology effect and structure effect, and then builds a generalized dynamic spaciai panel model with common factors to verify two features of China's industrlal structure change- horizontally interregional competition and local governments' follow-up on central policy. The results show that the higher-level China's industrial structure reaches, the more its evolution relies on technology effect. Regional industrial structure change in China is characterized by remarkably interprovincial competition, regional industrial structure change follows the Central Committee's policy actively as well, mainly in structure effect. This paper also finds that the Central Committee's political incentives for local officials are important drive of regional interaction in local industrial structure change. Political incentives have time period, as a result, local officials give priority to change that influence industrial structure itself for time restriction and political performance without improving the upgrading of technology efficiency remarkably.