中文摘要：

为了解我国牛肉市场现状及大致走向,本研究构建包括牛肉生产、进出口贸易、城乡居民消费、价格传递及市场出清在内的牛肉市场局部均衡模型,拟合各方程并对市场的未来发展状况进行预测。研究结果表明：农村居民牛肉消费对价格和收入水平的敏感度高于城镇居民,居民牛肉消费对收入敏感度更高;未来我国肉牛生产和市场规模将得到不断提升;农村居民及城乡户外的消费潜力巨大;牛肉价格和肉牛出栏价格将不断上涨;牛肉进口剧增而出口不断萎缩。至2020年,我国牛肉产量将达到723.17万t,净进口量为55.40万t,城乡居民总消费量为600.35万t;肉牛出栏价格和牛肉价格分别上升至37.11和79.50元/kg。

英文摘要：

In order to understand the status quo and future tendency of beef market,in this paper,a partial equilibrium model of beef market has been developed, which includes beef production, trade, the urban and rural residents＇ beef consumption, price transmission and market clearance,and fits relevant equations to forecast the development trend of beef market. The results show that the rural residents＇ beef consumption is more sensitive to the price and income than that of the urban residents, and residents＇ beef consumption is more sensitive to the income than the price. The production and market scale of beef will improve continually,and there exits a huge market potential of rural residents＇ beef consumption and urban and rural residents＇ outdoor-consumption. The price of beef and beef cattle is increasing continuously. For the beef trade market, the import is increasing, while the export is decreasing. By 2020, the beef production will reach 7.23 million tons,the net import will reach 554 000 tons,and the total consumption of urban and rural residents will reach 6.00 million tons. Besides, the beef cattle market prices and beef prices will increase by 37.11 and 79.50 CNY/kg respectively in China.