中文摘要：

基于聚落点的泥石流灾害潜在危险性评价是实现泥石流灾害准确预测、预报及灾损估算的基础.在GIS 9.3软件支持下,选取地质构造、地形地貌、气象水文和人类活动4方面9个因子,利用层次分析法,对攀西地区泥石流灾害影响因素及危险性进行评价,并利用实际泥石流点进行精度验证.在对攀西地区人口数据进行空间化的基础上,分析了聚落点泥石流灾害的潜在危险性.结果表明,攀西地区极高和高危险区分布主要受断层影响,而在中部和南部,河流对泥石流的影响远大于断层的影响,在西北部和东北部,断层、坡度和高差3个因子对泥石流的影响均大于河流对泥石流的影响.攀西地区泥石流灾害极高、高和中危险区评价结果中有84.10%的实际泥石流分布和72.48%的人口分布.泥石流灾害极高危险区分布在研究区断层附近,高危险区分布在极高危险区外围,中危险区分布在距断层较远的地区,低危险区分布在东、西部没有断层的地区.

英文摘要：

Risk assessment of debris flow hazard in settlement sites is the basis for accurately forecasting and predicting disasters and reckoning damages and losses. With the help of GIS, a total of 9 factors in the fields of geologic structure, to-pography, hydrometeorology and human activities were selected for use in analysis of influencing factors and risk assess-ment of debris flow hazards in Panxi region, with the analytic hierarchy process, and the assessments were verified for the accuracy against conditions of the sites where actual debris flows occurred. Based on spatialization of the population data of Panxi region, potential risks of debris flow hazards in the settlement sites were analyzed. Results show that the distribution of the areas extremely high and high in risk is mainly affected by fault in the west of the region, and by river more than by fault in the middle and south of the region, and by the three factors of fault, slope and elevation, more than by river in the northwest and northeast of the region. In 84.10% of the areas rated to be extremely high, high and medium in risk in the risk assessment actual debris flow hazard did occur, affecting about 72. 48% of the population. Areas extremely high in risk are generally distributed in the vicinity of a fault, areas high in risk are in the periphery of the former, areas moderate in risk areas are relatively far away from a fault, and areas low in risk are in the eastern and western parts of the study areas where no faults are found.