理解流域历史时期的人—水—生态演变过程和规律,对其当前和未来的管理规划极为重要。通过梳理近几十年来有关学者对西北干旱区典型内陆河流域——黑河流域过去2000年的水环境、人类活动、生态环境演变及其耦合研究等方面的成果,发现单个方面的研究均已较为普遍和成熟,并且积累了大量的素材和数据,但是缺乏以流域为单元,从长时间尺度综合考虑人—水—生态相互作用,定量分析人—水—生态协同演化过程的研究成果。今后的研究,一是应当着重于数据挖掘方法的探索,对已有成果进一步挖掘并进行对比和校正,构建一套长时间序列的可靠的人类活动、水文和生态数据集;二是应当着重于动力学模型的构建,增加生态—水文系统与人类活动的互馈机制描述,刻画人—水—生态的协同演化过程,从而达到通过揭示流域过去2000年的人—水—生态协同演化过程,为流域当前和未来的管理提供历史镜鉴,为国内外的其他类似流域提供参考。社会水文学的提出无疑将极大地促进流域人—水—生态演变研究的发展。
Understanding the evolution process and rule of the human-water-ecology is very important for the current and future river basin management and planning. This study briefly reviews the achievement obtained by many scholars for decades on the water environment,human activities and ecological environment and their coupling research in the past two thousand years in the Heihe River Basin,a typical inland river basin in arid region of northwest China,including the changes of the precipitation,temperature and runoff in historical period,the evolution process of the terminal lake,desertification process and oasis succession,social development,such as the changes of the population,alternation of agricultural and animal husbandry production,water allocation,water management. Although a lot of important progress has been made in the individual study and a lot of material and data have been accumulated,there are lack in full description of human-water-ecology co-evolution process and quantitative analysis of their interaction in long time scale at basin scale. In the future we should concentrate on two aspects,one is data mining method for producing a set of long time series reliable data about human,water and ecology by comparing and calibrating the exciting achievements and data; the other is constructing dynamical model for depicting the process of human-water-ecology co-evolution by adding mutual feedback mechanism between human activities and eco-hydrological system. It can light on river basin management in current and future and provide references for other basins both at home and abroad by revealing the human-water-ecology co-evolution process in the Heihe River Basin in the past two thousand years. Now the rise of socio-hydrology will greatly promote the development of the study of the human-water-ecology evolution in a basin.