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中文摘要：
以两轮中国创业动态跟踪调查（CPSED）收集的321个创业者数据为样本，采用层级式的逻辑回归方法，实证考察不同程度外部环境不确定性和产品创新性约束条件下商业计划正式程度对新企业生成的内在影响机制。研究发现：创业者制定的商业计划正式程度越高，新企业成功生成的可能性越大，而外部环境不确定性和内部产品创新性调节着上述影响机制。因此，在创业初期资源匮乏的条件下，关键并不在于是否制定商业计划，而是应该根据外部环境不确定性以及创业者打算供给产品的创新性来权变地选择不同正式程度的商业计划，以促使新企业的成功生成。
英文摘要：
With hierarchical logistic regression models based on the data of a 321 entrepreneur sample in China Panel Study of Entrepreneurial Dynamics （CPSED）, this paper empirically explores how to choose appropriate business plans formalization in new business emergence while considering environmental uncertainty and product innovation. The empirical results suggest that the higher degree of business plan formalization leads to greater possibility of new business emergence, the environment uncertainty and product innovation moderate this mechanism. With serious resource constraint at the venture creation stage, the key problem does not simply relies on whether to make a business plan, but also on how to choose a business plan with formalization at an appropriate degree by considering both internal product innovation and external environmental uncertainties.
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