中文摘要：

世界上很多国家针对电力行业出台基于总量控制的排污权交易市场，而总量和初始排污权的分配是排污权交易市场的核心问题。采用演化博弈理论，依据经济与环境协调发展的关系，以减少单位减排量使发电量减少量和增加单位减排量使发电量增加量之间的比例关系确定排污控制总量。在此基础上构建了基于多主体博弈的Swarm仿真模型，并给出了一个仿真实例。政府制定排污控制总量，发电企业在产品市场和排污权市场中进行价格、产量决策。通过仿真发现随着排污总量的不断减少，电能生产存在一个先减少、后增加、再减少的过程，并且减少与增加的幅度是不同的，这为电力行业制定排污总量提供了科学依据。

英文摘要：

The total emission control of the pollutant emission, the core of which is the reasonable allocation of the initial emission permits, is an important way of the environment protection and sustainable development in the world. The total pollutant emission is solved by a dynamic evolution model according to the proportional relation between reduced or increased product when the total pollutant emission is reduced or increased and the relation between economical and environment coordinated development. When total pollutant emission is given, the initial emission permits are allocated by equilibrium analysis on enterprise＇s game behavior. A simulation model based on multi-agent is constructed, and an example based on simulation model is implemented. In model, the total pollutant emission is decided by government, then the enterprise makes price and volume policy in product and emission permits market. Through simulation experiment, the total pollutant emission in market and initial emission permits of every enterprise can be solved, and the reason why emission permits trading is infrequent is explained. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China（No.90410016）.