中文摘要：

交通部门能源消耗和污染物排放的比例较大,增长迅速,因此研究交通部门的节能减排措施显得尤为迫切。文章以厦门市城市交通部门为例,基于LEAP模型构建Xiamen-2008Tra交通模型,研究从基准年2008年到2030年的能源消费量以及CO2、SO2、NOx和PM10的排放量,评估各种节能减排措施的效果。模型设定了基准情景和最佳情景,前者作为参考情景假设政府没有采取任何措施来抑制交通部门能源增长,后者作为最乐观情景包括私家车控制、燃料经济性调整、新能源车推广、燃料税和生物燃料推广五个节能减排子情景。研究结果表明：2030年最佳情景要比基准情景节能36.08%,CO2、SO2、NOx和PM10的排放量分别减少40.46%、47.06%、32.07%和44.91%;在各种节能减排措施中,私家车控制措施节能减排效果最好。

英文摘要：

Due to a large proportion of energy consumption and pollutant emissions in transport sector,the study of measure of energy saving and emissions reduction in the transport sector is particularly urgent.A transport model of Xiamen-2008Tra based on Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System（LEAP） was developed,taking Xiamen transport sector as a case study.The energy consumption and emissions of CO2,SO2,NOx and PM10 for the base year 2008 and extrapolated till 2030 were analyzed.The model established Business as Usual（BAU） scenario and Best Case（BC） scenario totally.BAU scenario was pertaining to a base line reference scenario,in which the government was assumed to do nothing to inhabit the increase of road transport energy demand.BC scenario was considered the most optimized case,which included five available reduction subscenarios such as private vehicle control,fuel economy regulation,promoting new alternative power vehicles,fuel tax and biofuel proportion.Results showed that comparing with BAU scenario,the BC scenario saved 36.08% of energy consumption,and emissions of CO2,SO2,NOx and PM10 decreased by 40.46%,47.06%,32.07% and 44.91% respectively.Private vehicle control had a better effect on reducing energy consumption and pollutants emission than other sub-scenarios.