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乌力吉木仁河三级区水资源变异及归因分析

ISSN号：1000-0852
期刊名称：水文
时间：0
页码：40-43+39
分类：P333.9[天文地球—水文科学;水利工程—水文学及水资源;天文地球—地球物理学]
作者机构：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072, [2]水利部水利信息中心,北京100053
相关基金：国家自然科学基金项目（51190094;51179131;50979075;50839005;50579052）;水利部水利信息中心研究项目（2010-256）
相关项目：西江洪水归槽影响下非一致性洪水频率计算方法研究

关键词：水资源, 水文变异, 归因分析, 降雨径流关系, 乌力吉木仁河三级区, water resources, hydrological alteration, attribution analysis, rainfall-runoff relationship, the third grade Wulijimurenhe

中文摘要：

随着气候变化和人类活动对水资源影响越来越显著，大量水文序列的统计规律不再满足一致性要求而出现了变异。水资源日益重要的社会地位，要求在对水文变异进行检测的同时，需进一步量化影响其变异的因素．但目前归因分析的研究仍以定性或半定量为主。由于降雨和径流是水循环中关键的水文要素。且分别可以反映气候变化和人类活动对水资源的影响，利用降雨一径流关系提出了定量研究水资源变异的归因分析方法。结合乌力吉木仁河三级区1956～2000的年径流和年降雨序列。在对其分别进行变异诊断的基础上，定量地分析了造成该区水文变异的原因。计算结果表明：气候变化对鸟力吉木仁河三级区水资源变异的贡献率为24％，而人类活动影响的贡献率为76％，可见人类活动是造成该区水资源变异的主要因素。

英文摘要：

Climate changes and human activities have had more and more effects on water resources. It makes statistical regulations of hydrological series no longer be consistent, which means the hydrological series have alteration. Increasingly important social- roles of water resources require not only study on the hydrological alteration, but also the quantitative attribution analysis. Whereas, the attribution analysis methods are still at qualitative or semi-quantitative levels. Because the rainfall and runoff are the key hydrological elements in the water circulation, and they could reflect the impact of climate changes and human activities at the same time, the attribution analysis of water resources alteration method in quantitative is proposed with rainfall-runoff relationship in this paper. With the annual runoff and precipitation data of the third grade Wulijimurenhe from 1956 to 2000 years, based on the re- suits of alteration diagnosis, the attributions that caused the hydrological alteration were analyzed in quantitative. And the results show that the contribution rate of climate changes to the alteration of water resources of the third grage Wulijimurenhe is 24%, and the contribution rate of human activities is as large as 76%. It is obvious that the extensive human activities is the main factor.

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