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中文摘要：
目的：识别影响需方优先使用基本药物潜在需求激活的关键事件与可能发生情景,提出相应策略.方法：采用描述性分析、多因素logistic回归分析与情景分析法.结果：发现需方优先使用基本药物潜在需求产生的12个关键影响因素;识别了影响潜在需求激活的5个关键事件,构筑了未来3种可能情景,其中无突变情景发生的可能性更大并以此提出了两类激活策略.结论：在提升可支付能力策略的基础上,应将重点放在需方优先使用基本药物意愿的激活策略上.
英文摘要：
Objective To identify the key event of demand-side＇s potential demand in giving priority to use essential medicine and to put forward the corresponding strategy. Methods Adopting descriptive analysis, multivariate logistic regression analysis and scenario analysis for the analysis. Results The 13 key factors and 5 key events were identified by qualitative and quantitative meth- ods. The paper constructed 3 scenario of future development and provided 2 activation strategies on the basis of no sudden change and pessimism which likelihood increased. Conclusion The activation strategy of demand-side＇s willing in giving priority to use es- sential medicine should be focused on the basis of promotion the affordability.
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