中文摘要：

通货膨胀率和通货膨胀不确定性之间相互影响,二者之间的内在关系对政府运用货币政策具有重要的现实意义。本文采用1990年1月以来居民消费价格指数（CPI）的月度数据,结合随机域回归模型、系列随机域的非线性检验方法、最大似然估计及贝叶斯估计方法,对我国通货膨胀率与通货膨胀不确定性的关系进行了实证分析。实证研究发现,通货膨胀率引起了通货膨胀不确定性,两者呈现非线性的U型关系,支持了Friedman假说;大的通货膨胀不确性引起通货膨胀率先升后降,呈现非线性倒U曲线关系,Cukierman-Meltzer假说在U型左侧范围内成立,于U型右侧Holland结论成立。

英文摘要：

Random Fields regression model,a battery of tests for neglected nonlinearity based on the theory of random fields,Maxim Likelihood and Bayesian Estimation were combined to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in China since January 1990.The results show that the relationship between two variables is an asymmetric U-shaped curve,convincingly support Friedman＇s hypothesis that a rise in the inflation rate increases inflation uncertainty.Turning to Cukierman-Meltzer＇s hypothesis,the relationship between two variables is down U-shaped curve,where the left side has positive but the right side has negative effects.