采用核密度估计、空间统计和地理加权回归对2000年以来中国各地乡村转型发展水平及其驱动因素进行区域性分析。研究表明:①中国乡村转型发展空间分异明显,高值区集中在东部沿海发达区域,低值区集中在西南部地区。2000—2010年,区域间乡村转型发展相对差异减小,但空间差异格局固化。②乡村转型发展受自然因素、区位条件、经济及社会变化的综合影响,工业化、城镇化、农业现代化和投资带动是主要驱动力,耕地资源对乡村转型发展的制约性不显著。③经济社会因素对乡村转型发展的作用强度存在区域差异,工业化、城镇化对东部地区乡村转型发展推动作用高于西部地区,农业现代化对平原地区和西北部畜牧区乡村转型发展的推动作用更明显。④应根据乡村发展基础和转型态势,制定区域差别化的措施和政策,改善区际协同环境及完善城乡互动机制,尤其提升中西部乡村地区对工业化和城镇化的区域响应能力。
With the economic growth and population urbanization, the social economy of rural China experienced fast transformation under the comprehensive effect of many factors. It's of importance to research spatial pattern of factors' effect on rural transition development due to huge disparity of rural China. Using geographic weighted regression(GWR)model companied by kernel density evaluation and exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA), this paper analyzed the rural transition development index(RTDI) and its spatial relationship with influencing factors. We concluded that, 1) Rural transition development in China takes on significant spatial disparity, areas of high value gather around big cities in coastal China, while areas of low value are mostly located in southwestern China. The gap of RTDI among rural China tends to narrow, however, the spatial disparity is still huge which exhibits the Matthew effect referred to location. 2) Rural transition development is effected not only by factors related to geographic location, but also the progress of socioeconomic changes. The modern progress such as industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization and investment are main drivers. However, resource endowment of arable land is not a general factor because of the lack of arable land per capita in China and unfair policies on the grain bases.3) The coefficients between socioeconomic factors and rural transition development vary along the location which means these factors make different contributions to rural transition in different areas. Industrialization and urbanization make more influence on rural regions of eastern China than that of western China, while agricultural modernization make more contribution to the areas of grain plain and the pastoral areas in western China. 3)Taking consideration of different development basis and transition status, the government should make different development policies suitable to rural characters, improve trade environment between regions and int