中文摘要：

通过对泰勒规则的非线性机制进行理论分析,构建时变平滑迁移回归模型对可能存在的非线性特征进行描述和刻画,结果发现中国中央银行的利率操作针对通货膨胀存在明显的非对称反应;同时中央银行的利率规则还存在明显的结构转变。在经济新常态时期名义利率对通胀缺口的调整系数不显著,这与中国中央银行存在＂惰性＂和非对称偏好有关;而利率对产出缺口的调整系数显著,并符合稳定的＂泰勒规则＂,表明经济新常态时期中央银行更关注产出缺口的波动,这将是未来一段时期中国中央银行货币政策操作的＂新常态＂。

英文摘要：

Analysing the nonlinearity of Taylor rules by constructing time-varying parame- ters smooth transition regression model based on theoretical analysis of nonlinear mechanism of monetary policy rules, the results show that policy rules call for changes in nominal rate in re- sponse to different zones of inflation. At the same time there is obvious structural transformation in China＇s central bank＇s interest rate rules, the coefficient of the nominal interest rate on inflation gap is not significant, because China＇s central bank＇s preference is ＂Zone-like＂ and asymmet- ric, but the coefficient of nominal rate on output gap is significant, this means the central bank is more focused on the fluctuation of the output gap, and this will be the ＂new normal＂ of the central bank＇s monetary policy operation in the future.