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中文摘要：
运用最大似然比和西沃兹信息标准的变点识别方法,对广东省主要江河1956-1999年的年径流量、汛期径流量、枯水期径流量和最小月径流量的年序列,进行均值变点和方差变点识别,得出径流量特征值存在变点的序列类型、时间位置、空间分布及时序变点前后的特征值变化状况,结合广东省降雨量序列变点识别、水利工程设施建设等气候和人类活动影响因素的分析,以揭示广东省河川径流量时空变异特征及主要成因.结果表明：广东省河川年径流量和汛期径流量序列的一致性较好,而枯水期径流量和最小月径流量序列的特征值变点具有普遍性,年均值明显增加,年际离散程度增大.枯水期径流量序列均值变点的典型时间位置为1973年和1980-1981年,分布于西江支流贺江、东江、粤东沿海螺河,由水库等蓄水工程的径流调节作用而形成;方差变点的典型时间位置为1981年,主要分布于北江、韩江、粤西鉴江、珠江三角洲的增江及网河区顶部干流水道,与特丰年1982年的枯水期大量降水有关.最小月径流序列主要为均值变点,不同河流的变点时间位置有较大差异,但多集中在1972-1973年,分布于西江支流、东江、韩江及粤东沿海河流、珠江三角洲的增江.珠江三角洲顶部的北江干流水道的径流量变异尤其典型,四种径流量序列均存在均值变点和方差变点,典型时间位置为1980-1981年和1992-1993年,是由网河区剧烈的人类活动改变了河道分流比所导致.
英文摘要：
Based on the change-point theory and methods,the likelihood ratio method testing in the mean and the Schwarz Information Criterion testing in the variance,change points of time series of the river runoff such as the full year runoff,the flood season runoff,the dry season runoff,and the least monthly runoff were recognized for main gauge stations of Guangdong Province from 1956 to 1999.Spatial-temporal location of these tested change points were described in detail,key features of the characteristics variability of time series of the river runoff were concluded on the whole,and furthermore root causes were illuminated for those change points of runoff time series in terms of the mean and the variance.In general,it showed that change point was widely tested in the existence of the dry season runoff and of the least monthly runoff,which the annual value increased significantly and fluctuated remarkably after the change-point time,otherwise of the full year runoff and of the flood season runoff.Furthermore,the change-point location in the mean of the dry season runoff obviously occurred to 1973 and 1980-1981 in the Hejiang River of the Xijiang Basin,the Dongjiang River,Luohe River of Eastern Guangdong coast mainly due to reservoirs adjustment,and the change-point location in the variance of the dry season runoff to 1981 in the Beijiang River,the Hanjiang River,Jianjiang River of the Western Guangdong coast,Zengjiang River and the top water channel of the Pearl River Delta,mainly by the reason of the precipitation of the dry season in large quantity in 1982.However,it occurred to 1972-1973 in spite of different change-point temporal location in the mean of the least monthly runoff,widely in Xijiang River and its streams,Dongjiang River,Hanjiang River,Zengjiang River,and rivers of Eastern Guangdong coast.In particular,change-point in the mean and in the variance were tested in the existence of these four kinds of annual series in the top Beijiang channel of the Pearl River Delta due to change of the split flow ratio on
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