中文摘要：

将丹江口水库坝址洪水系列延长至2014年,对丹江口水库的最大历史洪水进行了重新考证,分别采用P3/CF和P3/LM模型对设计洪水成果进行复核,并基于复核后P3/CF模型的成果推求设计洪水过程线,再通过调洪演算推求汛限水位。利用世界各国大洪水记录外包线计算了可能最大洪水,研究汉江流域发生的古洪水,并进行对比分析。结果显示：把历史洪水的最大历史考证期延长至625年,两个模型的平均设计值与初期设计成果相比,千年一遇洪峰和7日洪量设计值分别偏小了10.37%和13.30%。建议丹江口水库设计和校核洪水分别取58000m^3/s和80500 m^3/s,汛限水位抬升2.0 m,在确保防洪安全的前提下,可显著地提高水库的综合利用效益。

英文摘要：

The dam site flood series of the Danjiangkou reservoir was extended up to 2014 and its greatest historical flood was verified in this study. We checked the design floods using a P3/CF model and P3/LM model separately and obtained a flood limiting water level （FLWL） through reservoir flood routing based on the design flood hydrograph calculated by the P3/CF model. The probable maximum floods were estimated using the envelop curves of the world greatest flood records and the paleofloods in the Hanjiang basin. This rational analysis shows that the historical textual period of the greatest flood occurring in the year 1583 could be extended to a period of 625 years. And by averaging the calculations of these two models, the 1000-year design flood peak and 7-day flood volume should be decreased by 10.4% and 13.3% respectively. Thus we recommend a design flood of 58000 m^3/s, a check flood of 80500 m^3/s, and an increase in FLWL by 2.0 m for this reservoir. This would significantly increase the comprehensive benefits while ensuring flood control safety of the reservoir.