中文摘要：

以图们江干流区间为研究对象,应用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法分析干流区间4个水文站点径流年际与年内变化趋势。在此基础上,采用R/S分析方法分析年径流、季节径流和月径流变化趋势在未来的可持续性,利用Mann-Kendall突变检验方法分析各水文站点年径流、季节径流和月径流发生突变的年份。结果表明：图们江干流区间各水文站径流年际和年内变化趋势均与干流径流变化趋势一致,呈下降趋势,非汛期径流下降的贡献主要来自春季和冬季径流的下降;Hurst指数表明,上游径流变化趋势的持续性最强,下游的持续性相对较弱;1985年是图们江干流区间年径流发生突变的年份,且降水量也发生了变化,可以推测降水量可能是径流不断减少的重要因素。

英文摘要：

The nonparametric Mann-Kendall method was used to detect the long-term trends and determine the significant level of annual runoff volume observed at the hydrological stations in mainstream basin of the Tumen River.The R/S analysis was applied to analyze the sustainability of annual,seasonal and monthly runoff volume,on which the Mann-Kendall test was used to examine the future trend of annual runoff volume.The results showed that there was generally a reduction trend of annual,seasonal and monthly runoff volume,the reduction of annual runoff volume was mainly caused by the reduction of runoff volume in spring and winter.The Hurst exponent indicated that the annual runoff volume was holistically decreased,and a continuous decrease may be maintained in the future.The sustainability of change trend of runoff volume was the highest in the upper reaches but the lowest in the lower reaches.The Mann-Kendall change-point test method was used to determine the time series of hydrological change points of annual runoff volume.Results indicated that the hydrological change point occurred in 1985.At the same time,the annual precipitation in the mainstream basin of the Tumen River was also changed,so it was inferred that the decrease of precipitation may be an important factor resulting in a reduction of surface runoff volume in the mainstream basin of the Tumen River.