中文摘要：

基于不确定理论,研究了需求为不确定变量（不是随机变量和模糊变量）的库存风险控制最优策略,以风险最小化为目标建立了库存风险模型.确定了＂之字形分布＂下的最佳需求估计值,得出了需求为不确定变量时的经济订货批量和订货周期的修正公式.应用数学软件Matlab,对该模型进行仿真计算,结合灵敏度分析方法,分析了模型参数变化对库存风险控制的影响.

英文摘要：

In order to achieve the goal of minimizing risk on inventory, based on the uncertainty theory, the optimal strategy of inventory control under uncertain demand is explored, and the risk model of inventory is established. Furthermore, the best demand estimated value is confirmed under the ＂zigzag distribution＂, and the formulae of economic order quantity and the ordering cycle with uncertain variables are further corrected. Following this, using the mathematical software Matlab, the model＇s simulation values are calculated, and the effect of parameter variation on inventory risk control is analysed by eomhining with sensitivity analysis method.