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中文摘要：
电转热（P2H）技术可以平抑分布式可再生能源发电功率波动，促进光伏发电的消纳与电-热互联综合能源系统的协同运行。建立了含光伏的电-热互联综合能源系统概率能量流模型，采用Natal变换对相关非正态的光伏输入随机变量进行抽样，并与拉丁超立方采样相结合，定量评估P2H对电力系统和热力系统概率能量流的影响。实际巴厘岛的算例分析结果验证了所建立模型的有效性。在含光伏的电-热互联综合能源系统中，P2H可促进分布式可再生光伏的消纳，并有效增强系统的安全性。
英文摘要：
P2H（Power-to-Heat） technology can be used to suppress the power generation fluctuation of distributed renewable energies and to promote the accommodation of PV（PhotoVohaic） power and the syner- gistic operation with integrated electricity-heat energy system. A probabilistic energy flow model of integrated electricity-heat systems with PV is established and Natal transformation is adopted to sample the correlated non-normal random variables of PV inputs,which is then combined with LHS（Latin Hypercube Sampling） to quantitatively assess the impact of P2H on the probabilistic energy flows of electrical and thermal systems. The effectiveness of the established model is verified by the analytic results of Barry Island case. The P2H technology in the integrated electricity-heat energy system promotes the accommodation of PV and enhances the system safety.
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