碳源、碳汇是影响低碳发展的重要因素,由其形成的碳盈亏是区域低碳经济发展战略及政策制定的重要依据。本文基于能源消耗数据、主要工业产品产量,参考IPCC的碳排放标准,结合其他相关研究,计算了河南省能源消耗及水泥、钢铁、合成氨生产过程中产生的碳排放;在对研究区遥感影像处理的基础上,通过归一化植被指数(NDVI),将河南省的碳汇分为耕地、林地和草地,根据各种植被的碳排放和碳吸收系数,计算了河南省的碳汇及其变化,并对碳盈亏及其空间变化进行分析。结果表明:1研究期内,河南省碳排放及人均碳排放呈上升趋势,碳排放总量及人均碳排放年均分别增长11.22%和10.72%,而且空间差异明显,豫西、豫北、豫中地区人均碳排放相对较高,而豫南、豫东南地区则相对较低。2能源消耗是河南省的主要碳源,其碳排放量呈逐年增加趋势,但所占比重在不断下降;水泥、钢铁是除能源消耗外的另一种主要的排放源,其碳排放量及所占比重则呈逐年上升趋势。3河南省碳汇主要以林地和耕地为主,草地所占比重很小;全省碳汇呈减少趋势,2005-2013年期间减少了7.40%(47.05万t),年均减少5.88万t。4河南省总体上呈现碳亏状态,研究期内碳亏呈增长趋势,且碳亏的地区数量也在增加,总的来看,豫南、豫东南、豫西地区处于碳盈或弱碳亏状态,豫中及豫北地区处于较严重的碳亏状态。5河南省应通过改善能源结构、调整产业结构、优化用地布局等措施,减少碳源,增加碳汇,通过区域碳补偿或生态补偿等手段鼓励碳盈地区减源增汇,为低碳发展创造良好的外部环境。
Carbon sources and sinks are key factors for low-carbon development. Carbon surplus and deficit caused by carbon sources and sinks is the basis for formulating low-carbon development strategy and policy. Based on energy consumption data, output of key industrial products, and the IPCC standard of carbon emissions, and using the results of other research, carbon sources from energy consumption and the productive process of cement, steel, and synthetic ammonia are calculated for Henan Province. On the basis of remote sensing image analysis, carbon sinks are divided into arable land, forest, and grassland. According to the carbon emission coefficient and carbon absorption coefficient and the amount of carbon sources and sinks, the spatial and temporal variation of carbon surplus and deficit are calculated and analyzed. Through the research, we reached the following conclusion: (1) Carbon emissions and per capita carbon emission in Henan Province showed a rising trend from 2005 to 2013, and the average annual growth rates were 11.22% and 10.72%, respectively. The spatial variation was also clear. Per capita carbon emissions for the western, northern, and central areas of Henan Province were relatively high, but were relatively low in the southern and southeastern areas. (2) Energy consumption was the key carbon source in Henan Province. Carbon emissions from energy consumption showed a gradually rising trend, but its share in total carbon emissions was decreasing. Cement and steel productions were another important source of carbon emissions. The related carbon emissions and share in total carbon emissions showed a gradually increasing trend. The emissions and share of ammonia production were relatively low. (3) Carbon sinks in Henan Province are mainly composed of arable land and forest, and the proportion of grassland is very low. Carbon sinks in Henan Province decreased from 6384.83 million tons to 6337.78 million tons from 2005 to 2013, with an average annual reduction rate of 5.88 million tons. Thi