后危机时代,我国货币政策在维护货币金融环境稳定和促进经济转变发展方式的多重目标下处于两难的境地。应对政策目标冲突,需要遵循"N种目标,N种工具"的宏观调控法则,引入新的政策工具,使之与货币政策搭配组合,确保调控目标实现。本文利用自回归分布滞后模型,定量分析了2005年7月汇改前后,人民币名义有效汇率升值对居民消费价格水平的影响程度,实证结论认为在汇率传递效应加强的条件下,提高人民币名义有效汇率,不仅有助于从根源入手治理当前通货膨胀,而且有利于解决国内的结构性问题。
Abstract.- In the post-crisis era, Chings monetary policy, which is under multiple ob- jectives, such as maintaining the stability of the monetary and financial environment and promoting transformation of economic development mode, is in a dilemma. Responding to the conflict of policy objectives, it is need to follow the "N targets - N tools "macro-control law. The new policy instru- ment could corporate with monetary policy to ensure that regulation goals. This paper analyzed the impact of RMB nominal effective exchange rate appreciation to the consumer price before and after the exchange rate reform in July 2005 by the autoregressive distributed lag model. The empirical conclusion is that the improvement of the RMB nominal effective exchange rate under the higher ex- change rate pass-through effect, is not only helpful to treat the current inflation, but also conducive to solving the structural problems of the country.