中文摘要：

将混沌时间序列预测理论应用到大坝变形预测中，根据非线性大坝变形时间序列，运用相空间重构理论，建立了加权一阶局域法、基于最大Lyapunov指数法大坝预测模型，对混沌的大坝变形数据短期预测模型进行了研究，对比分析了各自的特点，并结合实例完成了对大坝变形的预测。计算分析表明，该模型预测误差较小，与传统的自回归模型预测结果相比，基于混沌时间序列的预测方法在大坝变形的短期预测中具有更高的精度。

英文摘要：

The chaotic time series prediction theory is applied to the dam deformation. According to the nonlinear characteristics of dam deformation time series and the theory of phase space reconstruction, two prediction models of dam deformation are established. The two models are the prediction model of adding-weight one-rank method and the prediction model of Lyapunov exponents. The characteristics of the above models are compared and analyzed as well. The study indicates that the prediction errors are small. Compared with the traditional AR model, the chaotic time series prediction theory has a high accuracy in the dam deformation prediction.