中文摘要：

现有边坡可靠度分析大多数只考虑土体参数的固有变异性,而忽略了地层变异性的影响。为此,提出了同时考虑地层变异性和土体参数固有变异性的边坡可靠度分析方法,利用耦合马尔可夫链模拟地层分布,采用基于乔列斯基分解的中点法离散土体参数随机场,采用有限元强度折减法计算边坡安全系数,通过蒙特卡洛法模拟进行边坡可靠度分析。利用澳大利亚珀斯市钻孔资料,以边坡可靠度问题为例阐明了同时考虑地层变异性和土体参数固有变异性的重要性,研究了钻孔布置方案对边坡可靠度的影响规律,结果表明：提出的方法能够有效地反映地层变异性和土体参数固有变异性对边坡可靠度的影响。当钻孔数目较少时,模拟的边坡土体类型分布与真实边坡土体类型分布相差较大,此时忽略地层变异性将导致边坡可靠度不精确的估计结果。钻孔布置方案对边坡失效概率和安全系数有明显的影响,钻孔应尽可能多的布置在边坡关键影响区域。边坡失效概率和安全系数统计量与钻孔数目并不呈单调关系,但是随着钻孔数目的增加,边坡失效概率和安全系数统计量逐渐收敛至“精确解”。

英文摘要：

The inherent variability of soil properties has currently received considerable attention in slope reliability analysis. However, the geological uncertainty is ofl.en ignored in analysis. This paper proposes a method for the slope reliability analysis considering geological uncertainty and spatial variability of soil parameters. The coupled Markov chain model is adopted to simulate the geological uncertainty. The midpoint method based on the Cholesky decomposition technique is used to discretize the random fields of different soil type parameters. The safety factor is calculated using the finite element-strength reduction method. The slope reliability analysis is conducted by Mote Carlo simulation. The procedure for this method is presented. A slope reliability problem is analyzed using the borehole data in Perth, Australia to illustrate the importance of considering geological uncertainty and spatial variability of soil parameters in slope reliability analysis and investigate the effect of layout scheme of boreholes on evaluating slope reliability. The results indicate that the proposed method can effectively reflect the effect of two types of soil heterogeneity on slope reliability. When there is less number of boreholes, the difference between the simulated and the real soil type distribution of slope is large, and ignoring the geological uncertainty will result in inaccurate estimation for slope reliability. The layout scheme ofboreholes has a significant effect on safety factor and failure probability of slope. Boreholes should be placed as many as possible in the critical influence zone of the slope. The relationships between the statistics of safety factor and failure probability of slope and the number of boreholes are not monotonic, but the statistics of safety factor and failure probability of the slope converge to the accurate value with the increasing borehole number.