中文摘要：

基于实物期权方法,研究不确定需求条件下柔性制造生产线生产运作、生产线生产能力不足时企业外包以及生产能力投资等决策问题。研究结论表明,（1）柔性生产线利润和投资价值高于非柔性生产线,在确定条件下柔性生产线最优总生产能力小于非柔性生产线,但在不确定条件下投资成本较大时结果相反;（2）柔性生产线在一定程度上能降低企业外包所面临＂敲竹杠＂造成的损失;（3）柔性生产线更能促进企业提早投资。

英文摘要：

Based on real options approach,this paper conducts research on the operation of flexibility manufacturing line,the outsourcing under insufficient production capacity, and the investment in production capacity under uncertainty. The results show that the profit and the investment value of flexibility manufacturing line is higher than that of non-flexibility one. The optimal production capacity of flexibility manufacturing is smaller than that of non-flexibility one under certainty, but under uncertainty, the result is inverse when investment costs rise to some degree. In addition, the flexibility manufacturing line can facilitate enterprise invest earlier.