中文摘要：

通过遥感解译得到2013年怀来县土地利用数据,探究山地丘陵地区土地利用演变规律和驱动机制。选取自然、经济社会、空间距离及随机因子等12个驱动因子,运用Logistic回归方法对引起该地区土地利用变化的驱动因素进行了空间定量化分析,并对各地类回归模型的拟合度进行了检验,计算得到了研究区土地利用类型空间分布概率图。研究结果表明,各地类分布受地均纯收入和人口密度影响较大,通过ROC检验得到各种土地类型的拟合度分别为：耕地0.844,园地0.780,林地0.904,建设用地0.882,水域0.983,其他用地0.650,各土地类型的拟和度均在0.600以上,拟和结果较满意。社会经济、地形、城乡建设用地、道路交通等因素对研究地区土地利用格局形成与演变有着重要的影响。

英文摘要：

In order to investigate the evolution and driving mechanism of land use in hilly areas, to obtain land use data of Huailai county in 2013 was obtained through the interpretation of remote sensing. With the Logistic regression model, the driving factors of land use change were quantitatively analyzed from 12 factors such as nature, economic, social, spatial distance and random factors. The fitting degree of the regression model of all kinds of land was tested through ROC method.The probability map of the spatial distribution of land use type was calculated. The obtained fitting degree of different land type through the ROC test is 0.844 for cultivated land, 0.780 for garden, 0.904 for forest land, 0.882 for construction land,0.983 for waters and 0.650 for other type of land. Fitting degree of each land type was more than 0.6 00, which is satisfying The results revealed that the factors such as development of social and economy, urban and rural construction land, roads,terrain distribution have important influence on the formation and evolution of land use pattern in the studied area.