基于中国气象局1964-2013年温度和降水格点观测数据,利用旋转经验正交分解对中国北方农牧交错带进行了气候分区,并分析研究了该地区近50年的温度和降水变化特征。结果表明:(1)我国北方农牧交错带共可分西区、中区、东区南段、东北段4个区域。(2)整体来看,近50年农牧交错带增暖显著,其中最低温和冬季增温贡献最大;年降水量略有减少(50年减少约13 mm),主要表现为夏季降水减少。(3)分区来看,中区增温最快;西区年降水量是减少的,主要发生在春季;中区与东区南段年降水量也是减少的,主要发生在夏季;而东区北段年降水量是增加的,主要是春季降水的贡献。(4)1998年以来,农牧交错带存在同全球变暖停滞类似的增温停滞现象,且停滞程度更明显。
This study analyzed the spatial-temporal change of historical temperature and precipitation in pastoral transitional zone in Northern China,based on observational temperature and precipitation grid datasets during1964-2013 from Chinese Meteorology Administration(CMA).The climate division was made using rotated empirical orthogonal function(REOF)in the meantime.The result shows that:(1)The whole pastoral transitional zone in Northern China can be divided into 4 regions which can be simply named the west region,the central region,the southern section of the east region,and the northern section of the east region,respectively.(2)In general,the pastoral transitional zone in Northern China had experienced a significant warming during 1964-2013 which was mainly attributed to the warming of winter and larger increase of minimum temperature rather than the increase of maximum temperature.The pastoral transitional zone in Northern China had also experienced a slightly decrease of precipitation(13 mm less during 1964-2013),and it was largely because the summer precipitation had declined the most in this period.(3)Focused on sub-regions,the temperature of the central region in pastoral transitional zone increased the most in the period of 1964-2013 among 4 sub-regions.As for the precipitation,annual precipitation in western north region decreased in the last 50 years mostly because of the decrease of spring precipitation in local.Meanwhile,the annual precipitation in central region and the southern section of the east region had decreased as well,but differently,it can be mainly attributed to the summer precipitation's decline.Moreover,the annual precipitation increased in the northern section of the east region,and the spring precipitation contributed it the most.(4)The pastoral transitional zone in Northern China has experienced a warming hiatus resembling to the global warming hiatus since late 1990 s,only the temperature has declined more,meaning that the declining trend of temperature in