持续的能源投资是经济持续发展的必要保障.鉴于我国能源投资的复杂性,基于系统动力学和成本预测方法,预测了我国2006—2050年期间的能源投资需求,分析了各能源品种的投资需求特点及不确定性因素.结果发现,我国能源投资将保持持续增长态势,但能源投资占GDP的比重不断下挫.而且,电力投资将一直占据我国能源投资的主导地位.
Sustainable investment to energy industry proves tile essential basis for sustainable economic development. This paper, using the system dynamics approach and cost prediction method, projects China's energy investment demand during 2006-2050, explores the energy investment features of every energy source, as well as the uncertainties for China's future energy investment. The results indicate that China's energy investment may see a continuous increase in the projecting period and the ratio of energy investment to GDP may gradually decline. Additionally, the investment of power industry always dominates the China's energy investment.