利用1999~2009年我国资源开采业的产值数据,采用灰色关联分析,确定了资源开采业优先发展的行业为有色金属行业,同时构建了6个子产业的GM(11,)模型,并对模型进行了后验比和小概率误差的检验,发现除了其他采矿业模型不成立外,其他5个模型成立。最后,利用预测模型对资源开采业各行业未来五a的产值进行了灰色预测。
Based on Grey Relational Analysis,non-ferrous metals industry is identified as the priority development industry with datas of production value in 1999~2009,and GM(1,1) models for 6 underling industries are built.These models are tested with testifying ratio and small error probability,the results show that 5 models are valid except other mining industry.Then grey prediction of production values in future 5 years for resource extraction industry is made with prediction models above.