中文摘要：

在国际游资规模越来越庞大的今天，政府通过冲销干预以期达到改变投机者预期从而维持汇率目标区的愿望越来越变得不现实。本文分析了基于供给视角解决汇率目标区可维持性的局限，主张从需求视角构建托宾税惩罚机制以消除投机者冲击目标区边界的高额收益预期，从而使汇率目标区具有完全可信性。完全可信的汇率目标区不仅可以解决货币投机攻击问题，还给“三元悖论”难题提供了一个近似解，使得一国货币政策不再受制于国际短期资本流动。

英文摘要：

Due to the huge scale of the international short-term capital in recent years, it is unrealistic for the government to change the expectation of speculators to stabilize the exchange rate target zone by its sterilized intervention. This paper analyzes the limitation of the maintainability of the exchange rate target zone from the supply approach. It is advisable to construct a fully credible exchange rate target zone with Tobin tax punishment so as to eliminate speculators＇ high return expectation. The fully credible exchange rate target zone solves not only the problem of currency speculative attack, but also the puzzle of Tri-paradoxes by insulating the monetary policy from the impact of the international short-term capital movements.