基于三江源地区河南站﹑甘德站﹑同德站﹑玉树站﹑曲麻莱站﹑伍道梁站和玛多站等7个气象站点的气温和降水数据,利用Tharnthwaite Memorial模型分析了三江源地区2002-2010年以来草地净生产力(NPP)对气候变化的响应情况及其时空差异变化,并分别建立了气温、降水量与气候生产力之间的线性回归模型,探讨了三江源区域的生产力变化方向及其生态经济发展策略。结果表明:近9年来,研究区年平均气温和年平均降水量均呈现出一定的上升趋势,气候总体趋于暖湿化;在该气候变化背景下,研究区草地生产力呈现出一定的线性增加趋势,并且三江源草地的生产力主要受气温的影响,但降水是影响生产力增加的关键因素;三江源地区实施生态保护与生态补偿以及丰富牧户的收入来源是促进该区域生态经济可持续发展和维护生态安全的重要措施。
Changes of the temperature and precipitation in Henan county, Gande county, Tongde county, Yushu county, Qumailai county, Zhiduo county and Maduo county of Sanjiangyuan regions in the recent 9 years and the response of grssland climate productivity to these changes were analyzed based on the meteorological data observed during the pieriod from 2002 to 2010, using the Tharnthwaite Memorial model and mathematical statistics method, the direction of productivity change and ecological economic development strategy of Sanjiangyuan regions were explored. The results revealed that, the temperature and precipitation both showed a certain upward trend, the climate trended to be a warming-weting pqttern in Sanjiangyuan regions, and grssland climate productivity was inclined to linear increase. There was a siginificant correlation between the grssland climate productivity and the temperature and precipitation, grass productivity is mainly affected by the impact of temperature, and precipitation aloso was the Key factor. The government should implemente ecological protection and ecological compensation, and enrichment the income source of herdsman to promote the regional ecological-economic sustainable development and the maintenance the ecological safety of Sanjiangyuan regions.