中文摘要：

根据结构可靠度基本原理和边坡稳定计算的瑞典法基本概念,不经过分条,直接建立和推广了堤坝边坡任意滑动面的稳定可靠性分析的极限状态方程,并给出了广义抗力和广义荷载效应的显式函数式;对于存在不同渗流情况下的计算,利用边坡稳定的确定性分析中替代容重概念,建立了考虑渗流作用下的边坡可靠度计算模型;利用蒙特卡罗模拟法编制了寻找最危险滑动面的程序,可计算分析服役堤坝的边坡稳定最大失效概率。计算例题表明,这种计算方法可行,而且可以方便地寻找到最危险滑动面以及对应的稳定可靠度分析中的最大失效概率,为服役堤坝的稳定可靠度计算提供了一种较简便和实用的方法。

英文摘要：

　According to the basic principle of structural reliability and the basic concept of the Swedish method,a limit state equation of slope stability reliability analysis for random slide plane of dikes or earth-rock dames is established and spread without strip division,and the explicit functions of generalized resistances and loads effect are provided.Using the substitution capacity connotation of deterministic analysis for slope stability,the reliability calculation model for slope stability with seepage is set up.Using the Monte Carlo simulation,a computer program to explore the most dangerous slide plane is worked out,which can analyze the maximum failure probability for the slope stability for existing dikes or earth-rock dams.The calculation results of an example show that the method is feasible and can be used to seek conveniently the most dangerous slide plane and the corresponding maximum failure probability of slope stability reliability analysis.The method is a simple,convenient and practical method for stability reliability analysis for existing dikes or earth-rock dams.