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中文摘要：
电网运行风险评估可以综合考虑扰动事件发生的可能性和严重性，其模型复杂、计算量大。文中分析了在线环境下运行风险评估的特点和模型要求，提出一种基于事件树概念的在线运行风险评估方法。该算法采用自动装置和继电保护逻辑仿真法，模拟N-1的原发性故障引发的连锁故障，动态生成事件树。通过设置事件树的概率精度来控制事件树的规模，从而控制单次运行风险评估的计算量。基于该方法开发的软件已嵌入预警系统，并已在现场投入运行。
英文摘要：
Power system operation risk assessment can evaluate the likelihood and severity of contingencies, but it is time-consunming to analyze all possible contingencies in real-time environment. An efficient approach is proposed to automatically generate the reasonable subset of the contingencies. This method is developed based on the concept of event tree, which adopts logic simulation method of protective relay and automatic devices to simulate N- 1 cascading failures, and dynamically generates event tree. The scale of event tree is controlled by setting probabilistic precision of event tree, then the computation burden of single operation risk assessment is also controlled. Based on the proposed algorithm, a risk assessment software is developed and embedded into an early warning system and put into real practice.
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