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中文摘要：
据主导产业发展的一般原理，在分析影响合肥主导产业更替变化的经济、社会、技术等内外因素的基础上，结合地区经济发展特点，对现代主导产业选择基准进行了合理的变化与补充，提出了七条选择地区主导产业应遵循的基准，构造了一套指标体系，建立了一个合肥主导产业的层次选择模型。并且通过实际测算以及定量和定性的综合分析制定未来产业发展战略。研究表明，未来一段时期合肥市主导产业为五大主导产业群：（1）汽车产业群；（2）橡胶与塑料产业群；（3）家用电器产业群；（4）传统商贸业为主的生活性服务业；（5）由社会服务业、金融、物流组成的生产性服务业。
英文摘要：
Leading industries play an important role in the development of urban and regional economy. To select urban leading industries need to consider many factors and criteria. According to the theory of industrial economics and regional economics, based on the analysis of several economic, social and technological factors that affect the development of leading industries and integrated with the characters of urban and regional development, this paper modifies and supplements the principles and criteria to better select leading industries for urban development and builds a mathematical model based on the index system we designed. The leading industries of Hefei are suggested quantitatively as a case study and the related issues such as industrial development trend are also discussed.
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