中文摘要：

由使用非线性的本地 Lyapunov 代表和非线性的错误生长动力学，每月的降水的可预测性限制是基于为时期在中国从约 500 个车站收集的每日的观察估计的份量上 19602012。因为每日的降水数据不在空间和时间是连续的，转变首先被使用，有 Gaussian 分发的一个每月标准化的降水索引(SPI ) 被构造。每月的 SPI 可预测性限制(MSPL ) 是为 SPI 干燥、湿、中立的阶段计算的份量上。结果证明年度吝啬的 MSPL 为湿、干燥的阶段地区性变化：MSPL 在湿(干燥) 阶段相对更高(更低) 在南部的中国比在另外的区域。进一步，为湿阶段的 MSPL 的模式为在秋天和冬季的干燥阶段对那几乎相反。在干燥阶段的 MSPL 在冬季是更高的并且在南部的中国在春天和秋天降低，当在湿阶段的 MSPL 价值在南部的中国比在春天和秋天的那些在夏天和冬季是更高的时。MSPL 的空间分发从一个动态扩大范围的预报系统类似于每月的降水的预言技巧的。

英文摘要：

By using the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent and nonlinear error growth dynamics, the predictability limit of monthly precipitation is quantitatively estimated based on daily observations collected from approx- imately 500 stations in China for the period 1960-2012. As daily precipitation data are not continuous in space and time, a transformation is first applied and a monthly standardized precipitation index （SPI） with Gaussian distribution is constructed. The monthly SPI predictability limit （MSPL） is quantitatively calcu- lated for SPI dry, wet, and neutral phases. The results show that the annual mean MSPL varies regionally for both wet and dry phases： the MSPL in the wet （dry） phase is relatively higher （lower） in southern China than in other regions. Further, the pattern of the MSPL for the wet phase is almost opposite to that for the dry phase in both autumn and winter. The MSPL in the dry phase is higher in winter and lower in spring and autumn in southern China, while the MSPL values in the wet phase are higher in summer and winter than those in spring and autumn in southern China. The spatial distribution of the MSPL resembles that of the prediction skill of monthly precipitation from a dynamic extended-range forecast system.