中文摘要：

基于地震应力触发理论,利用岩石圈分层模型,计算1955年以来鲜水河断裂区域周边历史强震产生的同震及震后粘弹性库仑应力变化。顾及构造运动产生的长期应力加载,综合分析2014年康定Mw5.9地震与历史强震间的关系以及鲜水河断裂现今应力状态。研究表明,鲜水河断裂的地震事件往往发生于历史地震所造成的应力增强区域;2014年康定地震震源位置的历史地震累积库仑应力变化最高超过0.11bar,超出应力触发阈值,历史地震应力扰动对康定地震的发生存在较为显著的促进作用;同震与震后库仑应力扰动在鲜水河断裂带形成两个应力累积高值区域,其一为鲜水河断裂康定段,其二为鲜水河断裂道孚段,两个区域未来的地震危险性较强。

英文摘要：

Based on the theory of seismic stress triggering and the lithospheric delamination model,we simulate co-and post-seismic Coulomb failure stress（CFS）evolution along the Xianshuihe fault zone,which has triggered major historical earthquakes.Considering the effect of inter-seismic tectonic loading,we analyze the relation between the 2014 Mw5.9 Kangding earthquake and historical earthquakes.The present stress state of Xianshuihe fault is also investigated in our analysis.Results from the simulation indicate that most of the historical earthquakes occur in the positive stress zone of the preceding events.The Coulomb stress induced by major historical earthquakes play an important role in the causing the 2014 Kangding earthquake.Co-and post-seismic CFS evolution create two positive stress zones on Xianshuihe fault,with high accumulated CFS and high tectonic loading speed.Seismic hazard on these two zones is non-negligible.