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黄河三角洲农作物秸秆资源综合评价——以东营市为例

ISSN号：1673-4831
期刊名称：《生态与农村环境学报》
时间：0
分类：X712[环境科学与工程—环境工程] S216.2[农业科学—农业机械化工程;农业科学—农业工程]
作者机构：[1]中国科学院海岸带环境过程重点实验室,山东烟台264003, [2]烟台大学生命科学学院,山东烟台264005, [3]中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所,山东烟台264003, [4]东营市农业科学院研究院,山东东营257091
相关基金：中科院海岸研究所部署项目（Y254021031）;公益性行业（海洋）科研专项（201105020）;公益性行业（农业）科研专项（200903001）

作者：吴从稳[1,2], 陈小兵[1], 单晶晶[3], 尹春艳[3], 袁玲, 张立宾

关键词：黄河三角洲, 东营市, 秸秆资源, 区域分布, 灰色预测, 综合评价, the Yellow River Delta, Dongying City, crop straw, regional distribution, grey prediction, comprehensive evaluation

中文摘要：

基于《东营市统计年鉴》（2004—2013年）和《山东省统计年鉴》（2014年）的统计数据,对东营市秸秆资源产量、密度特点及时空分布特征进行分析,并建立灰色预测模型对秸秆资源的未来变化进行预测.结果表明,2004—2013年间,东营市年均秸秆资源产量为147.51万t,并呈现波动上涨的趋势;秸秆资源区域分布中,广饶县所占比例最大,为53.61%,其余从大到小依次为利津县、垦利县、东营区和河口区;不同县（区）秸秆资源的来源结构略有差异,但均以玉米、小麦和棉花为主;秸秆资源密度和人均占有秸秆资源量均呈现自北向南逐渐增大的变化趋势.最后,运用GM（1,1）模型对未来10 a东营市秸秆资源产量进行预测,结果表明东营市秸秆产量将持续增长,2020年可达154.611万t.

英文摘要：

Based on the data contained in the Dongying Statistical Yearbook （ 2004-2013） and Shandong Statistical Year-book （ 2014） , yields, densities and spatio-temporal distributions of crop straw resources in Dongying were analyzed and in addition, a grey prediction model （ GM） was established to predict changes in the crop straw resources in future. Results show that during the period from 2004 to 2013, Dongying produced on average 147. 51×104 t of crop straw every year, and the yields fluctuated aong a rising trend;in Dongying City, crop straw resources were distributed mostly, about 53. 61%, in Guangrao County, followed by Lijin County, Kenli County, Dongying District and Hekou District; the resources were composed mainly of corn stalk, wheat straw and cotton stalk, but varied slightly from county （ district） to county （ district） proportion;and a gradually rising trend from the north to the south of Dongying was observed in density and per capita quantity of straw resources. In the end, crop straw production in Dongying City for the next 10 years was predicted with the GM （ 1,1） model, with results indicating that the yield of crop straw will keep on rising steadily and may reach up to 154. 611×10^4 t in 2020.

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