中文摘要：

采用事故树分析了三峡库区水污染重大公共安全事件的诱因结构，发现存在52条诱发事件的路径以及7条防治路径；水体污染重大公其安全事件会导致社会行为变异，生活必需品缺乏已成为最重要、最根本的因素，其他因素也不同程度地影响着事件的态势。基于上述分析，构建了预警指标体系和模型，可快速定量描述重大水污染公共安全事件的危害程度，为事件的预警与应急处置的科学决策提供依据。

英文摘要：

Utilizing fault tree analysis method to study the inducing process of fateful water pollution in the Three Gorges reservoir, the calculation results show that there are 52 inducing paths and 7 preventions approaches of the public security incident. This stage of incident can result in variation of social behavior. The most important and basic inducing factor is the lacking of basic necessities. Other factors also affect in varying degrees. Based on the above analysis, early warning system and model is built which can quickly quantify the harmful degree of the fateful water pollution incident, as well as provide the scientific basis for decision-making.