中文摘要：

在发展中国家，多种多样的规划被用来控制大城市的扩展和城市人口增长，然而，这些规划的界线屡屡被突破。当前，已有很多国内外文献对规划失败的原因展开了研究，本文对这些原因进行了梳理，可以归纳为以下几个方面：城市规划不系统、不科学；政府执行不到位；城市化或经济发展过快等。本研究对主要发展中国家大城市规划人口和现实人口进行了归纳和对比，认为城市人口的低估是大城市规划难以实现的一个关键因素。最后，利用世界上110个国家60年（1950-2010年）的数据，分析了各个国家首位城市人口和各国城市化水平及国土面积之间的关系，基于此，一个简要的预测模型被用来预测世界主要国家大城市的人口；为了更好地预测各国首位城市人口的数量，本文还设立了4个哑变量。预测结果与现实人口的对比显示：模型具有较高的预测精度.

英文摘要：

In developing countries, various plans are used to contain urban sprawl of large cities, though they are rarely successful. Previous studies mainly attribute the failure to unsystematic urban planning, problems of governance or implementation, and rapid economic development. We suggest that an underestimation of urban population numbers is also a key factor, and that population forecasting methods currently in use need to be revised Using panel data covering 110 major countries across 60 years （1950-2010）, this study examined the relationship between large cities, and countries＇ population numbers, urbanization rate, land area, and four dummy variables. Based on this, a simple and generalizable model is developed to project the population of large cities.