粮食生产是粮食安全的首要环节。通过分析我国1995-2009年粮食生产数据,阐明了目前我国粮食生产在区域结构上存在的"北移西扩"趋势,加大了粮食安全的自然风险和环境代价;在产能结构上存在的粮食生产对个别省份的高度依存、主产区部分省份贡献率急剧下降和主销区自给率持续降低等现象,加大了我国粮食安全的风险度;在品种结构上存在的品种间的大面积替代、稻谷供给偏紧、玉米需求增加、大豆自给率降低等现象也影响着我国的粮食安全。从保障国家粮食安全的角度,提出了调整优化粮食生产结构的对策。
Grain production is the first step of food security.This paper analyzes the annual grain production data of 1995-2009,and expounds that the growing trend about "northward moving and westward extending" in regional structure of the present grain production has been increased the natural risks and environmental expense of grain security;In capacity structure,high depending on individual provinces,sharp felling of the contribution rate of some provinces in major producing area and continued reducing of self-sufficiency rate of major consuming area,have been increased the risk of China's grain security;And the phenomena in breed structure about large area superseding between breeds,a little shortage of rice supplies,consumer demand increasing of corn and the reducing self-sufficiency rate of soybean also have been affected our country's food security.Some suggestions from the angle of national food security are given on how to adjust and optimize grain production structure.