中文摘要：

水资源可再生性决定了水资源可持续利用潜力。为评估珠江三角洲日益严峻的水资源压力，建立了多层次多指标的珠江三角洲水资源可再生性评价指标体系，构建可变模糊评价模型，对其水资源可再生性进行评价。结果表明该区域9个城市2012年的水资源可再生性均属II级，尤以深圳和肇庆最强，东莞和佛山最弱。其中，中山市的水资源可再生性主要由其社会可再生性决定，在2001－2012年间先减弱后增强。对中山及其它城市而言，加强社会水循环能力是增强水资源可再生性的关键。对比不同方法的评价结果发现，灰关联方法与模糊综合评价的结果基本相同。可变模糊评价级别一般较前两者低一个等级，其对隶属度的计算更加精细，评价结果偏于保守。遗传投影寻踪方法在样本指标差异极大时易产生不合理结果，不适于珠江三角洲城市问水资源可再生性评价。此外，在全国标准基础上考虑珠江三角洲的水循环特点建立了“偏严格”评价标准。在该标准下，珠江三角洲各市的水资源可再生性均为Ⅲ级。从严评价结果有利于促进该区域水资源可再生能力建设。

英文摘要：

Water resources renewability （WRR） determines water resources sustainability. Facing the increasing serious water resources pressure over the Pearl River Delta （PRD）, this paper, constructed a multi -hierarchy and multi-index WRR assessment system and developed an assessment model based on variable fuzzy sets theory, by which the WRR level of PRD was assessed. The results show that the WRR levels of nine cities in the PRD all belong to level II, with Shenzhen and Zhaoqing being the strongest while Foshan and Dongguan being the weakest. Particularly, the WRR levels of Zhongshan, one of the nine cities, are determined by its social WRR levels and go down first then up from 2001 to 2012. The assessment results of different methods show that Grey Relation Analysis and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evalu-ation have almost the same results. Variable Fuzzy Evaluation gives results with one level lower than those of the above two methods, since it calculates membership grades more finely and inclines to give lower level assessment. Genetic Projection Pursuit Method produces unreasonable results when sample data vary tremendously, thus making it not applicable for assessment of WRR levels of the nine cities in the PRD. In addition, a stricter standard system was constructed based on national data and data of the PRD. Un- der that system, the WRR levels of nine cities of the PRD were all assessed as level III. The stricter as- sessment results are likely to promote measures to increase WRR of the PRD.