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中文摘要：
近年来,土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应研究已成为国际的前沿和重点。在大理河流域,LUCC（包括水土保持措施）对水循环和水量平衡产生了深远影响,该流域LUCC水文效应的研究势在必行。根据研究区1990年代三期土地利用数据分析了LUCC的时空变化特征,采用特征变量时间序列法及降水-径流模型对LUCC水文效应进行了研究。结果表明：流域土地利用类型以耕地和草地为主,近10年来,耕地和草地面积有所减少,而林地和建设用地面积持续增加;流域年径流和月径流演化过程均表现出明显的下降趋势;LUCC及水土保持具有减少流域年径流、汛期流量以及增加枯季流量的作用,相对于降水因素,人类活动对流域水文的作用占主导地位;在1990-2000年期间,主要由LUCC引起的年均径流减少量达2616.6×10^4m^3,占该期间实测减水总量的62.19%。
英文摘要：
In recent years,the research on the hydrological response to Land Use/Land Cover Change（LUCC） has been an international frontier and a key problem.In Dali River Basin,LUCC,including soil and water conservation,have strong impacts on water cycle and water balance.Therefore,it is essential to study hydrological response to LUCC in this river basin.First,based on the land use data in 1990,1995 and 2000,the spatial and temporal characteristics of LUCC were analyzed.And then,using the Time Series Analysis Method of characteristic parameters and the rainfall-runoff model,hydrological response to LUCC in Dali River Basin were studied.The results showed that farmland and grassland were the primary land use types in Dali River Basin.For recent 10 years,the area of farmland and grassland decreased and the area of forest and constructed land increased gradually.The mean annual and monthly runoff showed a distinct decreasing trend.LUCC and soil and water conservation distinctly decreased the mean annual runoff and the runoff during flood season,and increased the runoff during non-flood season.Furthermore,compared with precipitation variation,human activities were dominant factors for these hydrological responses,and for this reason,the decreased runoff reached 2616.6×10^4 m^3 during 1990-2000,which accounted for 62.19% of the total amount of the decreased runoff.
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