中文摘要：

本文构建了技术进步和结构调整影响碳排放强度的空间溢出效应模型．利用2002--2012年中国30个省区的空间面板数据进行实证分析，揭示出技术进步和结构调整对碳减排的驱动机制，以期为政府相关部门科学制定减排规划提供决策支持和参考．主要结论如下：技术进步和结构调整的直接效应和总效应之间存在一定的差距，意味着某个省区的碳排放强度不仅受到邻近省区碳排放强度的冲击。还受到各省区之间结构性差异的冲击，这种结构性差异体现在各省区技术进步、产业结构、能源结构以及其他未纳入模型中的空间影响因素之间存在的差异．如果不考虑技术进步和结构调整对碳排放强度的空间溢出效应．对两者碳减排作用的估计会有偏误．

英文摘要：

It constructed the spatial spillover effect models to exam the effect of technological progress and structural adjustment on carbon intensity. Using Chinese provincial panel date from 2002 to 2012, it revealed the driving mecha- nism of technological progress and structural adjustment to the carbon emission reduction in order to provide decision support and reference for Chinese government to formulate emission reduction plan. The results show that： the gap be- tween the direct effect and the total effect of technological progress and structural adjustment means that carbon intensity of one province is not only affected by carbon intensity of the neighboring provinces, but also by the structural differ- ences of technological progress, industrial structure, energy structure and other affecting factors which are not included in the spatial panel data model. If the spatial spillover effect of technological progress and structural adjustment on car- bon intensity is ignored, it will lead to estimation error.