中文摘要：

在这研究，从盖住 20012050 的 1951～2000 和三投射情形模拟盖住时期的历史性的模拟被进行采用地区性的气候模型 RegCM4 在中国的主要的河盆检测陆上的水存储( TWS )的变化，在排出物情形( SRES )上用气候变化( IPCC )专辑上的 Intergovernmental 面板报导：A1B， A2，和 B1。历史性的模拟表明 TWS 的变化，被降水在盆统治，高度依靠他们的气候的特征。与历史性的模拟相比，在情形模拟的 TWS 的变化显示出强壮的地区性的差别。为所有情形，然而， TWS 被发现在西藏的高原附近在东北中国和包围的山增加大多数，并且在中国的东方区域最减少。不同于在干旱区域的 TWS 的低季节的变化， TWS 在东方季风区域显示出强壮的季节的变化，与通常发生在夏天的最大的变化，当 TWS 在一年里增加大多数时。在三情形模拟之中， TWS 在 B1 情形的 Songhua 河盆增加了大多数，并且在 A2 情形的珀尔河盆和 A1B 情形的 Hai 河盆最减少了，由不同年度趋势和季节的变化伴随了。

英文摘要：

In this study, a historic simulation covering the period from 1951 to 2000 and three projected scenario simulations covering 2001-2050 were conducted em- ploying the regional climate model RegCM4 to detect the changes of terrestrial water storage （TWS） in major river basins of China, using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES）： A1B, A2, and B1. The historic simula- tion revealed that the variations of TWS, which are dominated by precipitation in the basins, rely highly on their climatic features. Compared with the historic simu- lation, the changes of TWS in the scenario simulations showed strong regional differences. However, for all sce- narios, TWS was found to increase most in Northeast China and surrounding mountains around the Tibetan Plateau, and decrease most in eastern regions of China. Unlike the low seasonal variations of TWS in arid areas, the TWS showed strong seasonal variations in eastern monsoon areas, with the maximum changes usually oc- curring in summer, when TWS increases most in a year. Among the three scenario simulations, TWS increased most in Songhua River Basin of B1 scenario, and de- creased most in Pearl River Basin of A2 scenario and Hal River Basin of A1B scenario, accompanied by different annual trends and seasonal variations.