中文摘要：

不可靠供应问题在经济全球化进程中日益重要,相关研究大多基于风险中性假设,低估了供应风险。从风险厌恶型采购商出发,建立了基于指数效用函数的单阶段采购模型。数学上证明了最优采购量存在且唯一,并给出了解析解;从实际需求的角度证明了库存策略应对供应风险的有效性;发现最优期望效用与最大供应比例无关,严格递减于供应价格,为供应商选择奠定了基础。通过算例分析了供应价格、风险厌恶程度和需求等参数的影响。模型可拓展性良好,对供应风险管理具有较好的现实指导意义和较高的理论价值。

英文摘要：

Unreliable supply problems are important in procurement and supply chain management.We establish a single-period model with an exponential utility function,and prove mathematically the existence and uniqueness of the optimal order quantity and derive a closed form solution.The effectiveness of inventory policy in mitigating supply risk is proved from the perspective of actual demand.Furthermore,the maximized expected utility is found to be independent of the maximum supply ratio and decrease in supply price,which may lay a foundation for supplier selection strategy.Numerical study shows the impacts of supply price,risk-aversion degree and demand.The basic model can also be easily extended,and thus contributes to supply risk management in both theory and practice.