欢迎您！东篱公司
退出
-
申报数据库
-
立项数据库
-
成果数据库
-
项目获奖数据库
中文摘要：
洪水漫坝过程中,自然条件、坝体及应急处置等状态的不确定性所导致的事件持续时间的不确定性,以及应急处置措施的效果是影响漫坝风险的关键因素。首先将传统时间区间改造为不确定时间区间,提出了一种不确定时间区间时间贝叶斯网络（TBN）,并推导了该TBN的推理算法。在此基础上构建了考虑应急处置措施的洪水漫坝风险分析模型。仿真结果表明该模型具有信息时间累积能力,能判断各应急处置措施的重要程度,表达了洪水漫坝过程中同时存在的状态不确定性和时间不确定性,提高了漫坝风险分析的精度。
英文摘要：
In the process of flood overtopping,the uncertainty of events’ duration time caused by state uncertainty of natural conditions,dam and emergency measures,and the effect of emergency measures are both key factors that affect the flood overtopping risk.The traditional time interval was transformed into an uncertain time interval and an uncertain time interval Temporal Bayesian Network（TBN） was proposed.After that,a new inferring algorithm of the TBN was discussed.On the basis,flood overtopping risk analysis model,in which emergency measures were considered,was established.Finally,the simulation result shows that the model can accumulate information,judge the importance of each emergency measure,express the state uncertainty and time uncertainty which both exist in the process of flood overtopping and accordingly increase the accuracy of flood overtopping risk analysis.
同期刊论文项目
同项目期刊论文
The crossover effects of work-family conflict among Chinese couples: The role of family identity sal
Simulation of Pedestrian Flow based on Cellular Automata: A Case of Pedestrian crossing Street at Se
Building energy management: Integrated control of active and passive heating, cooling, lighting, sha
Reconfiguring networked infrastructures by adding wireless communication capabilities to selected no
Dispersion Prediction Model for Instantaneous Release of Hazardous Chemicals under Variable Wind Con
The Chinese emergency management system (part III): the Counterpart Assistance in post-catastrophe r
Heterogeneous and Stochastic Agent-Based Models for Characteristic Analysis of Super Spreaders in In
Manipulations of cognitive strategies and intergroup relationships reduce the racial bias in empathi
Efficient computing budget allocation for simulation-based optimization with stochastic simulation t
A New decision model for Handling Asynchronous Incident Objectives with Priorities in Emergency Resp
ORECOS: An open and rational emergency command organization structure under extreme natural disaster
Leader-follower congruence in proactive personality and work outcomes: The mediating role of leader-
Linking subordinate political skill to supervisor dependence and reward recommendations: A moderated
期刊信息
位置：