中文摘要：

由于外界环境的扰动,混凝土构件的表面氯离子浓度不应是一个确定的数值,而是一个服从某种概率分布的随机变量。为了考虑这种随机性对氯离子扩散过程的影响,编写了基于Monte Carlo方法的氯离子扩散过程有限元分析程序。程序充分考虑了构件表面氯离子浓度的随机性和时变性,通过多次取样,可以计算出钢筋在任意时刻的锈蚀概率,从而为预测钢筋的开始锈蚀时间提供依据。

英文摘要：

Influenced by the variation of environment, the local chloride concentration of the concrete component should not be a determined value, but a random variable with some probability distribution. In order to consider the influence of this stochasticity on the chloride diffusion process, a FEM program based on the Monte Carlo method has beendeveloped. Not only the stochasticity but also the time varying property of the local chloride concentration were considered in the program. By using the multiple sampling method, the probability of steel corrosion at any time can be calculated in order to predict the initial time of steel corrosion.