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中文摘要：
以艾比湖湿地自然保护区为研究区域,以1998、2006年Landsat TM影像和2014年Landsat OLI影像的土地利用/覆被分类结果为输入数据,采用CA-Markov模型,预测研究区未来的土地利用/覆被格局.在模型建立过程中,通过Markov模型求出转移概率矩阵和转移面积矩阵,确定CA模型转换规则,限制CA模型迭代次数.利用CA-Markov模型模拟预测研究区2014、2022和2030年土地利用/覆被格局,并采用2014年实际土地利用/覆被分类结果验证预测精度,得到2014年各土地利用/覆被类型面积预测误差均≤6.4%,空间位置预测精度达到76.0%.结果表明：1998—2014年,艾比湖湿地自然保护区林草地、盐碱地、干涸湖床和沙漠增加,其中,盐碱地的增幅最突出,增加了37.4%;水体和其他地类减少,且水体的减少突出,减少了34.8%.2014—2030年,艾比湖湿地自然保护区林草地、盐碱地和沙漠将呈增加趋势,而干涸湖床、水体和其他地类将减少.该研究可以为艾比湖自然保护区的土地利用/覆被动态监测以及可持续发展提供依据.
英文摘要：
Taking Ebinur Lake Wetland Nature Reserve as the study area, and based on the classi- fied result of Landsat TM images of 1998, 2006, and Landsat OLI images of 2014, this paper simu- lated and forecasted land use/cover types of Ebinur Lake Wetland Nature Reserve by using the CA- Markov model. In the model-building process, the transition probability matrix and the transition area matrix were obtained through the Markov model, which determined the conversion rules and it- erative times of the CA model. The land use/cover pattern of the study area in 2014, 2022 and 2030 was simulated and forecasted with the CA-Markov model. Then the forecast result was com- pared with the actual classified data of 2014 to verify the forecast accuracy. The prediction error of land use/cover type area was not more than 6.4% in 2014, and the spatial location accuracy was 76.0%. The results showed that the forest and grassland, saline-alkali area, dry lake bed and desert had an increasing trend in 1998-2014. The saline-alkali area increased the most by 37.4% and the water body decreased by 34.8%. In 2014-2030, the areas of the forest and soil and desert would increase, while that of the dry lake bed, water body grassland, saline-alkali and other objects would decrease. This study couht provide a basis for dynamic monitoring land use/cover as well as sustain- able development of Ebinur Lake Wetland Nature Reserve.
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