中文摘要：

运用 Bayes 方法进行小子样复杂产品可靠性试验评定时，先验分布的获取与表示是一个关键问题。研究了利用专家信息进行先验分布融合的方法，对基于 AHP 方法的先验分布权重因子的确定及评价判断矩阵的一致性检验等问题进行了分析。以某水中兵器导航系统为例，运用专家信息，在获得评价判断矩阵的基础上，对多源先验信息的融合进行了仿真验证。

英文摘要：

The acquisition and representation of the prior distribution is a key problem in reliability test and evaluation of small sample complex prod-ucts by using Bayes method.In this paper,the ap-plication of expert information in prior distribution fusion is studied.The method of the weight factor’ s calculation and the judgment matrix’s consisten-cy checking based on AHP is presented.In allu-sion to the underwater weapon’s guided system, with the judgment matrix based expert informa-tion,the fusion of multiple sources prior informa-tion is validated by simulation.