中文摘要：

农村还有多少有待转移的劳动力？民工荒真的存在吗？其实质是什么？针对这些问题，基于C—D生产函数，通过构建新古典模型对农村有待转移的劳动力进行测算。结果是中国依然有12255．2万人农村劳动力有待转移到非农部门就业，包括近4000万人农村富余劳动力和8000多万人兼顾农业部门与非农部门就业的丰转移状态劳动力。随着土地产权制度和土地流转交易制度的创新，土地流转速度加快和流转规模的扩大，农村还将释放出更大规模的可转移劳动力。研究认为：民工荒是一个悖论，并对这个悖论进行解释，从短期、中期与长期3个层面对做好农村劳动力转移的政策和制度安排给出建议。

英文摘要：

How much labor to be transferred in rural areas？ Does migrant worker shortage re-ally exist？ What is the essence？ To answer the questions, the paper measures the rural labor to be transferred by constructing a neoclassical model based on C - D production function. The result is that China still has 122. 552 million rural labor force to be transferred to non - agricultural sectors, including nearly 40 million surplus rural labor force and more than 80 million half - transferred la- bor who work both in agricultural and non - agricultural sectors. With the innovation of land prop-erty rights system and the system of land transfer transactions, the accelerating pace and the enlar-ging scale of land transfer and circulation, there will be more labor force to be transferred in rural areas. Based on this, the study argues that migrant worker shortage is a paradox, and some expla- nations are made to support the idea. Some recommendations on how to improve the policy and in-stitutional arrangement of rural labor transfer are proposed from the short - term, medium - term and long-term levels.