中文摘要：

基于洪潮预报的时效性和准确性要求,考虑洪水、天文潮、风暴潮等复杂因素的相互作用,建立了覆盖整个珠江三角洲网河区及口外海域的二维水动力学洪潮实时预报数值模型。模型中采用非结构有限体积法确保水量守恒,引入半隐欧拉-拉格朗日模式提高计算效率。通过嵌套南中国海潮汐风暴潮耦合模型,获取边界复合水位,同时利用回归系数法实时校正糙率系数,提高模型的预测精度。在此基础上利用Web Services、网络地理信息系统（WebGIS）等技术,对计算、演示、分析等组件进行集成,建立了基于三层B/S架构模式的珠江三角洲洪潮实时预报系统,并成功应用于＂黑格比＂（200814号）等台风暴潮的过程预报。

英文摘要：

A 2D hydrodynamic real-time forecasting model for Pearl River delta considering the interaction among flood,tide and storm surge built based on the demands efficiency and accuracy.The study area of the model covers whole river networkeight river mouths of the delta and the sea bay.The finite volume method based on unstructured mesh adopted to insure mass conservation.By introducing a semi-implicit Eulerian-Lagrangian algorithm to the process of solving shallow water equations,the computational efficiency improved.By combining the tide and storm surge model of South China Sea to get the offshore boundary and using regression coefficient method to correct Manning＇s coefficients,the precision of the numerical solution is effectively advanced.flood and storm surge real-time forecasting system Pearl River Delta developed based on three-tier Browser/Server framework.It integrates the components of simulation,visualization and analysis using Web Services and WebGIS technologies.The application of Typhoon Hagupit（200814#）forecasting indicates the key technologies presented in paper can improve the efficiency and accuracy of flood and storm surge forecasting to some extent.